Indonesia and the shifting power in Asia Pacific Nur Alia Pariwita  ;   A lecturer of geopolitics and security strategy at the University of Indonesia (UI) and was an Indonesian non-governmental delegate at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 30-June 1

JAKARTA POST,  16 Juni 2014

                                                

                                                                                         

                                                      

People’s Liberation Army deputy chief Lt. Gen. Wang Guanzhong’s impromptu speech made headlines at the 13th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore recently. In his remarks on the last day of the three-day meeting, Wang lashed out at the speeches made by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel. Wang stated the two leaders cooperated with each other and took advantage of talking first to shoot out provocative messages against China. In his keynote speech at the opening dinner, Abe emphasized Japan’s proactive contribution to maintaining stability and peace in Asia. He reiterated Japan’s respect for the rule of law, democracy and human rights many times in his speech. Abe tried to persuade the international community that the changing regional security architecture in Asia had pushed Japan to reconstruct the legal basis to the right of collective self-defense and to international cooperation, including the use of force in Japan’s international peace mission to protect civilians. “Diplomatic speech” by Abe powerfully hinted that Japan ought to reinterpret its constitution in an attempt to safeguard national interests in the East China Sea and to foster security and order in the region. The rise of nationalism and remilitarization has become an intense debate in Japan these days, whether Japan should play a great and more active role in rebalancing power in Asia or stay on the “conventional pacifism” track with the mandate to create peace by a peaceful means. The next day, a more frank and direct speech was given by Hagel. He said that China had taken unilateral actions regarding its claims in the South China Sea and declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea. Those actions, he said, have undermined stability in Asia. Even though the US takes no position on competing territorial claims, it certainly opposes any use of intimidation, coercion and force in asserting claims. As in the past, the 2014 Shangri-La Dialogue, hosted by London-based think tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), was intriguing. It is (usually) a “diplomatic” meeting, but China’s reaction to Japan and the US this year was noteworthy behavior. Some say it looked like a drama, while others labeled it as a portrayal of the escalation of distrust among countries in Asia Pacific. However, at the same time, each country still shows eagerness to raise their objections and points of view. This depicts the essence of dialogue itself as an attempt to open a debate forum and find a peaceful solution. But what can Indonesia learn from the Shangri-La Dialogue this year anyway? One thing for sure is the next Indonesian president has a more challenging job in response to shifting power in Asia Pacific. The way in which the upcoming government formulizes its foreign and security policy will come under the regional and international spotlights. Then there are several points that should become the main concerns of the seventh president of Indonesia in shaping his foreign and security policy. First is continuation of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s policy. During his two terms as president, Indonesia has had quite impressive track records in foreign and security policies supported by a relatively stable domestic politics and economic condition. Yudhoyono is a proponent of Indonesia’s active participation in regional and international forums. He has apparently carried on the efforts of Megawati Soekarnoputri to strengthen Indonesia’s role in ASEAN after holding the rotating chairmanship of the grouping in 2003. Yudhoyono’s government has deeply engaged in various ASEAN meetings, like the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting, ASEAN Regional Forum, East Asia Summit and helped set up the ASEAN Human Rights Declaration in 2012. Indonesia has also participated in international operations. For instance, it has been involved in the UN peacekeeping mission and in delivering humanitarian assistance as well as formulating the post-2015 development agenda together with the UK and Liberia as co-chairs of the High-level Panel under the UN Secretary General’s mandate. Second, Indonesia doesn’t have to choose to be an ally of any single major power in the region. I think we can still implement our “independent and active” foreign policy doctrine with some adjustments through the dynamic equilibrium principle. In the short and mid periods, we’re not only facing the US-China power shift, but also the rise of Japan and India, who will both play a more assertive role in the region. Rather than take a side, Indonesia as the natural leader of ASEAN should embrace all countries in managing order in Asia Pacific. Therefore, ASEAN is the fundamental platform for Indonesia to reach its strategic interests at the regional and international level. Third, Indonesia needs a white paper to project Indonesia’s goals in economic, security, defense and foreign affairs. In the next 15 years, Indonesia might focus on how to achieve its target as a middle power that can serve as a “stabilizer” in Asia Pacific. However, in the long run, let’s say 30-35 years later, Indonesia has to have a vision to become a major power. We have the economic, social and cultural capital based on our geographical landscape as well as human and natural resources. To become a major power, Indonesia also needs to gradually enhance its military capability. As Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said in the recent Shangri-La Dialogue, Indonesia is on its way to modernizing its military capability to achieve the minimum essential force by the 2020s. The increasing military budget should be balanced by transparency and military professionalism. No one doubts Indonesia’s strategic position in the Asia-Pacific. All we need is a leader who has the capacity to maintain economic and domestic political stability in a democratic way, and at the same time the ability to play a more pivotal role in the region. ●