After
2015, low-profile Jokowi needs better messaging
Adam Schwarz ; CEO of Asia Group Advisors; A Singapore-based
advisory firm; Author of A Nation in Waiting: Indonesia’s Search for
Stability
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JAKARTA
POST, 04 Januari 2016
For President Joko
“Jokowi” Widodo, 2015 served as a whirlwind introduction to the national
political stage and all of its intricacies.
In his first six
months the former Jakarta governor often looked reactive, unsure of himself
and uncomfortable in the spotlight. But by mid-year he started to find his
footing and by year-end had not only started to show results but showed
flashes of becoming the transformational leader he had hinted at in his
campaign speeches the year before.
It is still early days
for the Jokowi administration and the President’s ambitions far outstrip his
accomplishments to date.
He faces a challenging
external economic environment, an entrenched set of vested interests eager to
see him fail, and myriad economic handicaps from a decade of missed
opportunities in infrastructure development and land reform.
But in the new year
the mood in Indonesia is one of cautious optimism. There is a palpable sense
of energy in Jokowi’s government that was keenly absent in former president
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s stagnant second term.
At the heart of this
resurgence is Jokowi himself. As Indonesia’s first president not to come from
the political or military elite, Jokowi remains something of an enigma, with
a vision of national development and a leadership style markedly different
from the four post-Soeharto presidents who preceded him.
Jokowi has shown a
distinct lack of interest in long-winded national day speeches or
high-profile appearances at gatherings of international leaders. Davos Man he
is not. This is a president little enamoured with the pomp and circumstance
of his office, preferring to lead from behind rather than to grab the
spotlight. This has often been misunderstood as passivity or inexperience,
but as he begins to
settle into his presidency what we are seeing from Jokowi is actually a new
type of leadership that Indonesia has been keenly waiting for: empowering,
results-oriented and realistic.
A Cabinet reshuffle in August stands out as a turning
point in Jokowi’s thinking on the economy. Until that point, his top areas of
focus were on infrastructure development and re-positioning Indonesia as a
global maritime axis. While important, these goals have been eclipsed by the
urgent need to hack away at the miasma of regulatory and protectionist
measures put in place in Yudhoyono’s second term.
Nine months into his
term, Jokowi recognized that the Yudhoyono government’s regulatory over-reach
had rendered many exports uncompetitive, distanced industry from global
supply chains and constituted a massive obstacle to attracting the sorely
needed foreign investment Jokowi needs to rebuild Indonesia’s dilapidated
infrastructure.
True to form, this
change in approach was not announced by Jokowi in a prominent speech. It was
a subtle retune, in which a handful of ministers quietly were given new
marching orders and a seasoned technocrat in Coordinating Minister for
Economic Affairs Darmin Nasution was brought in to provide stability.
Three months later, we
are beginning to see the outlines of a new course for Jokowi, accompanied by
a generational shift in which the Cabinet’s younger, technocratic ministers
are enjoying the greatest trust from the President and are playing the
biggest role in driving reform.
Former governor Jokowi
has also become savvier in managing the interests of the political elite as
he pushes forward with his own priorities At the outset of his presidency
Jokowi’s lack of experience in managing the complex dynamics of national
politics and its many powerful players seemed to be a critical weakness in
his leadership. A year on, partly by relying heavily on his more capable
ministers, Jokowi seems to have found a way to better manoeuvre around
opposition to reform efforts, and to act more independently from vested interests,
including in his own coalition.
A recent example was
the high-profile scandal that erupted in November when Energy and Mineral
Resources Minister Sudirman Said released a recording of House of
Representatives (DPR) Speaker Setya Novanto demanding a 20 percent stake in
the mining giant Freeport Indonesia, in exchange for securing the company an
extension of its mining contract. Setya was subsequently investigated by the
DPR’s Ethics Council (MKD).
President Jokowi’s
role in this case was remarkably well-managed — he allowed Sudirman to serve
as the figurehead for the crusade, but wasn’t a silent observer either.
Jokowi publicly criticized Setya for using the President’s name in the
attempted shake-down, and called for law enforcement to pursue the case. In a
landmark moment for Indonesian politics, Setya resigned fas Speaker after it
became clear that most MKD members favored his removal.
This represents a
clear break with the past where political leaders have shied away from taking
on the powerful and deeply entrenched political and economic interests in
Indonesia’s energy and resource sector, out of concern it would trigger an
expanding circle of embarrassing revelations.
Jokowi’s distinct
leadership style can also be seen in the evolving economic policy agenda.
Since September his administration has launched a series of economic reforms
to stimulate growth and further improve the business environment.
Once again, Jokowi’s
public role in this initiative has been minimal. The President announced the
first policy package but has since said little on why his administration is
putting so much effort into a deregulation campaign, or how this campaign
fits into his broader economic agenda. Investors have reacted positively to
the deregulation initiatives, though doubts remain over Jokowi’s commitment
to the process.
Perhaps Jokowi’s
sharpest departure to date from Yudhoyono’s second-term shift to economic
nationalism was his late October announcement in Washington, DC that
Indonesia intended to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). While actual
TPP membership is at best years into the future, the announcement itself has
helped bolster the impetus at home for further deregulation and market
opening.
Equally importantly,
joining the TPP signals a change of mind-set — or, in Jokowi terminology, a
revolusi mental — from an inward-looking, protectionist policy stance to a
more open and outward-looking Indonesia, confident about its place in the
world. It reflects Jokowi’s recognition that Indonesia’s long-term growth can
only be secured by boosting competitiveness and productivity, combined with
more, not less integration with the international economy.
As he has done with
Minister Said in the energy arena, Jokowi has relied heavily on his recently
appointed Trade Minister Thomas Lembong to explain his thinking. Lembong has
risen to the task, unapologetically using language to communicate a free
trade stance that is almost impossible to imagine being uttered by any of his
recent predecessors. Similar path-breaking reforms are being pursued by
Marine Affairs and Fisheries Minister Susi Pudjiastuti and Communications and
Information Minister Rudiantara, both of whom enjoy strong support from
Jokowi.
But while Jokowi’s leadership by proxy style is beginning
to shape a promising policy agenda, it is not without risks. Looking forward
to 2016, President Jokowi will have to carefully balance his below-the-radar
instincts with ensuring that the voter knows where he stands and that his
ministers are doing his bidding, not the other way around.
His administration
will also need to invest more in communicating its policies and
accomplishments. The Jokowi
administration has consistently seen reforms fail to resonate with wider
audiences due to a lack of clear communication with both domestic and
international audiences.
Partly this is due to
an inexperienced band of advisors in senior roles in the Presidential Office,
and partly it reflects Jokowi’s unstructured, ad hoc style.
Either way, the administration’s
poor communications represents a political missed opportunity that Jokowi can
ill afford.
Jokowi himself will have to play a central role in this
effort. He will need to more clearly own and communicate his agenda if he is
to convince skeptical constituencies that he is committed to delivering and
not just talking about reform.
The public, and in
particular the business community, is all too familiar with Indonesian
presidents who begin their terms with reformist energy only to be stymied and
slowed by vested interests.
Finally, and perhaps
most importantly, Jokowi will need to
avoid the political deal-making temptations which have neutered the reformist
energy of several of his predecessors. Trading key cabinet seats to political
party representatives with little if any relevant experience and little or no
loyalty to the president has proven in the past to be at best a short-term
palliative, but in the long-term fatal to producing a coherent and effective
policy agenda.
Jokowi will need to trust
his famed people instincts to avoid the same fate befalling him. ●
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