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Selasa, 14 Februari 2012

The Minimum Wage Dilema


The Minimum Wage Dilema
Iwan Ungsi, A CIVIL SERVANT AND GRADUATE STUDENT AT S. RAJARATNAM SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY, SINGAPORE
Sumber : JAKARTA POST, 13 Februari 2012


“Labor was the first price, the original purchase-money that was paid for all things. It was not by gold or by silver, but by labor, that all wealth of the world was originally purchased.” (Adam Smith)

The recent series of labor strikes in Bekasi marked the end of the euphoria that followed the Indonesia’s achievement of investment grade. It took 14 years for Indonesia to arrive at this level, yet disputes between employers and laborers remain unabated.

Invariably, these disputes are so easily predicted that the public seems to be more apathetic to the workers’ cry for their basic rights through their only weaponry: labor strikes, ranging from peaceful demonstrations at local government (or legislative council) buildings to occupying and paralyzing major city roads.

Equally, employers counteract with their own version and weapon of choice. Where mobility of capital is fluid in the increasingly globalized world economy, relocation could be one option to consider if businesses view profits as no longer viable due to increases in labor costs. Typically, cost-cutting exercises in organizations rely on redundancy measures, but this is no longer a workable alternative due to restrictions in the present labor regulation, established in 2003, requiring employers to pay huge severance packages to laid-off workers.

Analyzing the situation at hand, both employers and workers are trapped in a zero-sum game, with each party appearing to emulate the “prisoner’s dilemma” game theory model, whereby both parties appear to choose to not cooperate even though it is in their mutual interest to do so.

In this instance, the workers use strikes to halt companies’ productions with the aim to hurt the company’s bottom line, and in turn, the employers might resort to relocation in order to ensure business continuity albeit with a price. The impact of this relocation signifies unemployment for the majority of the company’s workers. In the final analysis, everybody hurts, nobody wins.

Ironically, within the “prisoner’s dilemma” context, the option to choose to collude will provide a far greater benefit to each party as opposed to focusing on their own self-interests. The key to this game theory model is to establish communication between the parties and find common ground in order to seek shared perspectives.

Relating to the companies and their workers, the logical win-win scenario (otherwise known as Paretto optimal solutions) would be for both parties to settle their disputes such that the workers obtain their demands of higher wages, and in theory, incentivizing the laborers to achieve higher output.

The first minimum wage legislation was endorsed by the New Zealand government in 1894. Since then, minimum wage laws have drawn debate all over the world. Based on International Labor Organization (ILO) reports, 90 percent of countries implement minimum wage laws.

The UK, Australia, Netherlands, France and the US are among the countries that adopt the highest minimum wage; other countries like Singapore choose to enact foreign worker levies as a form of an implicit minimum wage (Chew Soon Beng, Business Time, 2010). In Indonesia, the term became familiar in the 1960s, but it was only introduced in late 1979.

There are two opposing views on minimum wage legislation. The first is concerned with empowering low-income workers and strengthening their bargaining position in salary negotiations amidst the widely available pool of cheap labor due to the abundance of human capital in Indonesia. Workers have no choice but to agree to unacceptably low wages where competition for jobs is stiff. Insufficient job creation to absorb the available labor force is one of the causal factors of the imbalance in the demand and supply in the labor market.

On the other hand, the opposing opinion perceives the minimum wage as too limiting and inflexible, concluding that it would inevitability hurt the labor market and consequently harm the country’s international competitiveness. Most of the conflicts over minimum wages have roots in the basic premises of these two opposing views.

The remaining discourse is always about labor exploitation vis-à-vis the unemployment rate. As an emerging country, the pressure to maintain low wage policies has been considered as an unfortunate – but necessary — outcome in order to achieve low unemployment rates and steady job growth. Overseas manufacturing-based industries will automatically seek out the most efficient labor market for their plant locations. Thus, we should not misguide and sacrifice workers’ wages in a “race to the bottom” and compensate with foreign direct investment inflow.

In the longer term, low-wage labor policies would not sustainably benefit the country’s competitiveness, as Carolina S. Guina (2009) argued that in the context of global competition, labor regulations and standards emerged as critical factor in attracting foreign direct investment, and low wages could result in low productivity and lower skill levels which would be disincentives for investors.

We must strive to reconcile differences between employers and the labor force, seeking all possible solutions. One alternative is to emulate global best practices, which elevate the demand curve by increasing labor productivity and attracting new foreign direct investment. Hence, higher wages come in the same package as higher employment.

This is no unrealistic view, as Singapore already did it in the 1980s. Following Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s visit in 1979, Singapore PM Lee Kuan Yew forsaw the potential of China and concluded that no country could afford to contend with China if they opened up. Hence, Lee commenced an agenda to divert Singaporeans from the low wage trap. Initial steps were taken such as reforming wage structures, mobilizing macro-focused labor unions, establishing the Skill Development Fund and improving the function of the National Wage Council (Chew and Chew 2005). These steps resulted in a nation competitive edge and pushed the country to full
employment.

Yet, how do we compare the situation in Singapore with a population of 5.1 million people, from which 1.4 million are foreigners, to the Indonesian context with 240 million people and a 119 million-strong labor force? Presume we multiply the difficulties 50 times, will this be settled? Unfortunately, what Lee predicted more than three decades ago has materialized now that the Chinese dragon has awakened, and currently holds the second largest economy in the world.

We should begin by improving infrastructure, enhancing labor productivity and labor movements, establishing better vocational training, eliminating political influence over the minimum wage avoiding drastic increases, and implementing good governance policies.

None of these steps are achievable without tripartite collaboration, but by working together we can compete internationally. ●

Rabu, 28 Desember 2011

Fitch rating and our opportunity


Fitch rating and our opportunity
Iwan Ungsi, a civil servant and graduate student at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
Sumber : JAKARTA POST, 28 Desember 2011


After 14 years of improvement, the investment grade for Indonesia has finally been reinstated. Fitch, an international credit rating agency based in New York and London, rates Indonesia’s long-term foreign and local currency issue default rating at triple-B-minus, with a stable outlook. This assignment regains the nation’s position prior to the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

How does the rating exactly affect us and our journey as a developing country? Can we be easily satisfied and be proud about this rating? Exploring the answers to these questions in further detail may provide us with a clear insight to the outcome of this rating for our country.

A previous study by Ferri, Liu, and Stiglitz (1999) points out that the credit rating agency plays a significant role in the financial market. Changes in ratings from these rating agencies in the downgrading or upgrading of sovereign debt below or above investment grade may bring dramatic impacts to a country’s investment activities, as these ratings to directly affect the pool of investors.

According to Fitch’s current sovereign rating history list, Indonesia’s sovereign rating ranked at the same level as India’s, one notch above Portugal’s and even more surprisingly, higher than some European countries that recently struggled in the debt crisis.

Conversely, rating changes revisited due to the recent global financial crisis in some countries may spark a strong adverse reaction from the countries in question. One such example is the recent downgrading of the US’ investment grade based on the future outlook of the US’ sovereign credit rating. US President Barack Obama felt it necessary to clarify the change in ranking by quoting famously: “the United States of America will always be a triple ‘A’ country”. 

Indonesia gained its recent investment upgrade ranking due its success in managing its debt-to-GDP ratio from 100 percent, as an outcome of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, to an impressive reduction 26 percent.

On Fitch’s website a full explanation is given to how sovereign ratings are derived, and most importantly, how the established basis, criteria and methodologies are continuously evaluated and updated. These ratings are widely used in financial sector practices, commonly known as investment grade ratings ranging from AAA to BBB and from BB to D.

Bankers, investors and other financial players frequently take into account sovereign (corporate) debt ratings when considering cross border investment decisions. The increase in the sovereign rating tends to reduce the country’s risk exposure, signifying a decrease in borrowing costs as well, not only for the government but also for those elements of the private sector interested in investing. This explains how the upgrade in rating is usually followed by an increase in the amount of capital inflows for both portfolio and foreign direct investment and vice versa.

A quantitative work conducted by Graciela Kaminsky and Sergio Smuckler (2002) shows impacts of changes in sovereign ratings on a country’s risk and stock market. It is also noted in this study that a sovereign rating upgrade will reduce a country’s risk of investment and financial market rallies.

Conversely, a downgrade will increase a country’s risk and create a downturn in the stock market.

In the last decade or so, Indonesia endured the consequences of a downgraded ranking. Losing its investment upgrade in December 1997, its rating dropped and hit a low B minus in April 1998, before bouncing back gradually in 2003. The country had limited opportunities to fully showcase its true investment potential to the international community because of its high investment risk.

Now that Indonesia has passed the investment grade threshold, its chances to enhance the economy are wide open. Trade minister and chairman of the Indonesian Investment Board  Gita Wirjawan says the rating upgrade will boost the country’s FDI figures by at least 1 percent of GDP, equivalent to US$9 billion, from the previous level. (The Jakarta Post, Dec. 17, 2011)

Better international perceptions may offer excellent momentum and should be optimized to support further growth of the country’s economy. However, the real challenge is how to maintain the international perception and transform it into a game changer, utilizing it to tackle the foremost constraint of developing countries: a lack of capital needed to support growth. Simultaneously, with our new regulation on tax holidays and the recently passed bill on land acquisition, the investment grade will lure more capital for infrastructure development.

In parallel, at the micro level, the investment grade will also provide better options for banking and financial institutions to access various sources of capital. Banks will be able to cut their cost of funds and lower their interest rates, and as a result, support further lending in business and investment activities.

But one must constantly remember and should not remain complacent in achieving Indonesia’s ultimate goal. We need to remain resilient in resolving our country’s fundamental problems.

Awarding the recent investment grade to Indonesia, Fitch restated the urgency to resolve the country’s long-standing structural weaknesses, namely overburdened infrastructure and corruption. As Charles Kenny (2006) and many other scholars stated, both are intrinsically connected. These scholars were able to correlate the impacts of Indonesia’s corruption to be inversely linked to the poor quality of Indonesia’s infrastructure. 

Full and bold commitments are needed from all stakeholders in order to resolve our country’s problems, not only to conform to further upgrading from the credit rating agency, but most importantly, to accomplish social welfare and present better living to all Indonesians.

We are doing better, but we are still far from what we should be able to achieve.