Unintended impact of beign military deployment

Unintended impact of benign military deployment Muhammad Arif  ;   The writer, a graduate student at the Strategic Studies at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, is program officer for defense and security studies at the Pacivis-Center for Global Civil Society Studies, University of Indonesia, Jakarta

JAKARTA POST, 17 November 2014

                                                                                                                       

As reported by the IHS Jane’s, Indonesia plans to upgrade its airbase on Natuna Island in the province of Riau Islands so it can handle its Sukhoi combat aircraft as well as newly purchased AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters. The plan comes on the heels of preparations at another air base in Pekanbaru in Riau mainland to receive a new squadron of F-16C/D purchased from the United States. The significance of this new forward deployment strategy is that it drastically changes the previous strategy of deploying military assets mainly in the inner areas of the country. The new squadron of fighter jets F-16C/D in Pekanbaru will enhance the Air Force’s coverage as the Riau capital sits right next to the vital Strait of Malacca as well as the neighboring countries of Singapore and Malaysia. The plan to upgrade the Natuna air base is even more noteworthy as the Indonesian Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) north of the island overlaps with the infamous Chinese nine-dash line claim, hence making the deployment inseparable from the context of the South China Sea dispute. The forward deployment demonstrates President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s bid to strengthen Indonesian strategic standing in the turbulent Asia-Pacific region. It is justifiable for Indonesia to deploy its defense assets anywhere within its territory; however, the plan risks unintended consequences, namely a hostile response from neighboring countries, particularly China. International politics, indeed, is not a fair business. States are constantly suspect of each others’ intentions. When there is no prospect of gaining clear information on an adversary’s current and future intentions, states tend to equate “intention” with “capability”. When a state witnesses another state arming, it could consider new military capabilities as attempts to undermine its security; a hostile image is thus attached to the arming state. As soon as the hostile image has been attached, any further move by the arming state would be regarded as a proof of their hostile intentions. Weapons purchased for defensive purposes could be regarded as preparation for an attack. Feeling that its security is undermined, the first state would take counter measures by arming itself, against which further responses would take place. And so goes the vicious cycle of the spiral of conflict. In fact, this is exactly what is happening with China and its military modernization. China’s military modernization, which it regards as a justified movement to secure its national interests, is judged in a very different way by the US and its allies in the region. This is where the notions of the US “rebalancing of Asia” and “strengthening alliances in the region” come into play. From the point of view of the Chinese, such movements are seen as the US trying to encircle and contain its rise, against which further military modernization continues. The net result of this strategic interaction is more uncertainty and instability in the broader Asia-Pacific region. The exact same case could happen with regard to Indonesian forward deployment, particularly in Natuna Island. What for Indonesia is a normal step in a broader agenda of its military modernization could be regarded in Beijing as Jakarta trying to undermine its interests in the region, particularly in the context of the South China Sea dispute in which Indonesia is not a claimant state. With this misperception in mind, China could launch diplomatic pressures on Indonesia, strain bilateral economic relations and, in the worst case scenario, deploy its military assets — closer to Natuna Island to anticipate an Indonesian move. If such an instance arose, Indonesia, in a need to maintain its credibility, would face no other choice than further enhance its military deployment in the area. Needless to say, it would exacerbate tensions in the area as well as the region. Moreover, the forward deployment in Natuna could also provoke Malaysia as Indonesia jets could easily reach the disputed area of Tanjung Datu, southeast of Natuna. It could even be regarded by Singapore as an Indonesian attempt to put more pressure on the renegotiation of Singapore Flight Information Region, which covers part of Indonesian air space, including Natuna skies. Indonesia’s drastic change in its deployment strategy, in other words, is likely to be regarded as assertiveness by its neighbors. To complicate the matter, one of the first official statements of Jokowi’s administration regarding its foreign policy is the departure from the previous “one thousand friends zero enemies” toward “national interests first”. From the disputing states’ point of view, like China, Malaysia and Singapore, Indonesian “national interests” could mean anything. And a forward deployment could easily be interpreted uneasily, even as a sign of hostility. To avoid the unintended consequences, Indonesian forward deployment, particularly on Natuna Island, must be conducted along with intensive diplomacy. The Defense Ministry and Indonesian Army must coordinate and speak with a similar tone to the Foreign Ministry. The latter, in particular, must be ready to anticipate anxious responses from neighboring countries whose interests are at stake, while insisting that Indonesian national interests, in this context, are merely the stability of the region. In short, a clear message that Indonesian forward deployment is by no mean provocative and initiated as a regular part of its ongoing military modernization must be transmitted throughout the region. In order to convince neighbors that the new policy is part of Indonesia’s broader agenda to increase its strategic standing in the region and to protect itself from emerging threats, the forward deployment should be carried out in a very careful manner. Otherwise, it will spark unfriendly responses from China and other neighbors. After all, a careful and gradual build-up of military power is not a sign of weakness, but a hurried and reckless strategy is. ●