Statistics,
the Failed States Index
and
Indonesa’s democracy
Arisyi Fariza Raz ; A Graduate of the
University of Manchester, UK
JAKARTA
POST, 17 Juli 2012
Recently, the media has highlighted Indonesia’s deteriorating
socioeconomic performance, as indicated by the Fund for Peace’s Failed States
Index 2012, which was published by Foreign Policy magazine.
In this regard, the news itself seems exaggerated, implying that Indonesia is on the edge of a precipice and will inevitably become a failed state.
Thus, before jumping to conclusions to judge Indonesia’s performance, it is necessary to analyze further what the index actually shows.
The index is calculated by computer software called CAST, which performs content analysis through sophisticated search parameters and algorithms.
It ranks 177 countries in the world based on its socioeconomic performance. According to the index, Somalia is ranked first as the worst performing country, whereas Finland is the best. Meanwhile, Indonesia is 63rd, a drop from 64th in 2011.
On their website, a Fund for Peace researcher Tierney Anderson prepared a full country profile of Indonesia.
The report describes Indonesia’s pressures assessment (also called Failed States Index), which is an index of 12 social, economic and political indicators that range between zero (best score) and 100 (worst score).
Surprisingly, contrary to what most Indonesians believe, Indonesia’s year-on-year pressures assessment actually improved by one point.
Further, this trend shows that Indonesia’s Failed States Index (Pressures) total score has decreased from almost 90 in 2006 to around 80 in 2011.
As mentioned earlier, this assessment is indexed based on 12 variables. Out of 12 variables, Indonesia’s performance improved in six (refugees, human flight, uneven development, poverty and decline, public services and external intervention), remained steady in four (demographic pressures, state legitimacy, security apparatus and factionalized elites), and worsened in two (group grievance and human rights).
The paper argues that group grievances deteriorated due to an increase in protests, harassment and violence against religious minorities, whereas human rights declined due to violence against minority groups and the lack of media freedom.
Nevertheless, the paper also points out that during 2011, Indonesia managed to improve its public services, bilateral relations to neighboring countries and economic output.
The report also concluded that political reform in the post-Soeharto era and democratic reconciliation, followed by decentralization, fundamental liberties, as well as electoral and constitutional reform, managed to secure Indonesia’s rank as a democratic state even though the country still had some issues such as corruption, fragmented elites, weak legislation and judicial system that undermined its democracy.
Overall, this in-depth analysis shows that, in absolute terms, Indonesia’s socioeconomic performance has improved during 2011. However, in relative terms, some other countries have improved more than Indonesia, which caused its ranking to fall by one place.
In addition, even though so far the index is considered as one of the most reliable sets of data by showing sophisticated methodologies, it is not a perfect index and is subject to further improvement.
For instance, the group grievance variable has to be controlled by the number of minorities in order to prevent biased estimation.
In this regard, countries that have a huge number of minorities such as Indonesia may be put in a disadvantageous position since they have varied demographic characteristics consisting of diverse ethnicities and religious groups.
Meanwhile, countries such as Korea and Japan may benefit since they are among the most homogeneous in the world.
Another example is the development and poverty indicator. In their book Mismeasuring Our Lives, Stiglitz, Sen and Fitoussi (the first and second authors are Noble Laureates in economics) suggest that, despite the fact that GDP is the most commonly used economic indicator, it alone is not enough to be used as a proxy to represent economic performance and social progress.
They further add that GDP is subject to limitations in terms of sustainable measures of economic welfare.
However, despite its drawbacks, this index still can provide us with insight into Indonesia’s current socioeconomic performance. It can be accepted as a criticism that Indonesia still faces obstacles as a democratic country, instead of looking only at pessimistic statistics.
Besides, Indonesia’s condition is not anywhere near that of Somalia or the dystopian state described in George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four, in which oppression prevails everywhere.
In fact, the overall index shows that Indonesia’s performance has been improving in the last five years, and its probability in becoming a failed state has become smaller.
A growing middle class, a decline in poverty and improved public services are among the facts that show Indonesia’s real progress in terms of development.
From a business perspective, Indonesia has also received rating Ba1 and investment grade from Moody’s and Fitch Ratings, respectively.
To conclude, every set of statistics has its own strong and weak points, and the Failed States Index is a good example.
Thus, we can use these statistics as one of many references to push our development forward and improve the quality of Indonesia’s socioeconomic performance.
But we should not desperately rely on these statistics alone, since every statistic is subject to its own perspective and methodology. ●
In this regard, the news itself seems exaggerated, implying that Indonesia is on the edge of a precipice and will inevitably become a failed state.
Thus, before jumping to conclusions to judge Indonesia’s performance, it is necessary to analyze further what the index actually shows.
The index is calculated by computer software called CAST, which performs content analysis through sophisticated search parameters and algorithms.
It ranks 177 countries in the world based on its socioeconomic performance. According to the index, Somalia is ranked first as the worst performing country, whereas Finland is the best. Meanwhile, Indonesia is 63rd, a drop from 64th in 2011.
On their website, a Fund for Peace researcher Tierney Anderson prepared a full country profile of Indonesia.
The report describes Indonesia’s pressures assessment (also called Failed States Index), which is an index of 12 social, economic and political indicators that range between zero (best score) and 100 (worst score).
Surprisingly, contrary to what most Indonesians believe, Indonesia’s year-on-year pressures assessment actually improved by one point.
Further, this trend shows that Indonesia’s Failed States Index (Pressures) total score has decreased from almost 90 in 2006 to around 80 in 2011.
As mentioned earlier, this assessment is indexed based on 12 variables. Out of 12 variables, Indonesia’s performance improved in six (refugees, human flight, uneven development, poverty and decline, public services and external intervention), remained steady in four (demographic pressures, state legitimacy, security apparatus and factionalized elites), and worsened in two (group grievance and human rights).
The paper argues that group grievances deteriorated due to an increase in protests, harassment and violence against religious minorities, whereas human rights declined due to violence against minority groups and the lack of media freedom.
Nevertheless, the paper also points out that during 2011, Indonesia managed to improve its public services, bilateral relations to neighboring countries and economic output.
The report also concluded that political reform in the post-Soeharto era and democratic reconciliation, followed by decentralization, fundamental liberties, as well as electoral and constitutional reform, managed to secure Indonesia’s rank as a democratic state even though the country still had some issues such as corruption, fragmented elites, weak legislation and judicial system that undermined its democracy.
Overall, this in-depth analysis shows that, in absolute terms, Indonesia’s socioeconomic performance has improved during 2011. However, in relative terms, some other countries have improved more than Indonesia, which caused its ranking to fall by one place.
In addition, even though so far the index is considered as one of the most reliable sets of data by showing sophisticated methodologies, it is not a perfect index and is subject to further improvement.
For instance, the group grievance variable has to be controlled by the number of minorities in order to prevent biased estimation.
In this regard, countries that have a huge number of minorities such as Indonesia may be put in a disadvantageous position since they have varied demographic characteristics consisting of diverse ethnicities and religious groups.
Meanwhile, countries such as Korea and Japan may benefit since they are among the most homogeneous in the world.
Another example is the development and poverty indicator. In their book Mismeasuring Our Lives, Stiglitz, Sen and Fitoussi (the first and second authors are Noble Laureates in economics) suggest that, despite the fact that GDP is the most commonly used economic indicator, it alone is not enough to be used as a proxy to represent economic performance and social progress.
They further add that GDP is subject to limitations in terms of sustainable measures of economic welfare.
However, despite its drawbacks, this index still can provide us with insight into Indonesia’s current socioeconomic performance. It can be accepted as a criticism that Indonesia still faces obstacles as a democratic country, instead of looking only at pessimistic statistics.
Besides, Indonesia’s condition is not anywhere near that of Somalia or the dystopian state described in George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four, in which oppression prevails everywhere.
In fact, the overall index shows that Indonesia’s performance has been improving in the last five years, and its probability in becoming a failed state has become smaller.
A growing middle class, a decline in poverty and improved public services are among the facts that show Indonesia’s real progress in terms of development.
From a business perspective, Indonesia has also received rating Ba1 and investment grade from Moody’s and Fitch Ratings, respectively.
To conclude, every set of statistics has its own strong and weak points, and the Failed States Index is a good example.
Thus, we can use these statistics as one of many references to push our development forward and improve the quality of Indonesia’s socioeconomic performance.
But we should not desperately rely on these statistics alone, since every statistic is subject to its own perspective and methodology. ●
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