Will the floods effect Jokowi’s presidential aspirations                                                      Kornelius Purba  ;  Senior Managing Editor at The Jakarta Post

JAKARTA POST,  26 Januari 2014

                                                                                                                        

                                                                                         

                                                      

“Disappointing,” I answered when a foreign journalist asked me about the city government’s progress in handling this month’s floods. It has taken several steps to minimize the impacts of the heavy annual downpours.  This is the second time that Jakarta Governor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has had to lead the fight against the routine disasters. Unfortunately though, I have not seen any significant progress in the way he has handled the situation this time compared to last year.  My reply will certainly entertain almost all general election contestants apart from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which is facing pressure from large sections of the public to nominate Jokowi as its presidential candidate.  The party’s chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, who is also the de facto absolute “owner” of the party, still thinks that she will only disappoint God if she go run for a fourth, and almost certain, unsuccessful presidential bid.  Many presidential aspirants and political parties, who are apparently at a loss on how to stop or minimize the possibility of Jokowi becoming an additional opponent in July’s presidential election, reportedly believed that the annual flood season in Jakarta this year was the only way to jeopardize Jokowi’s consistent popularty among voters. Will the assumptions of his political rivals materialize? Last year, millions of Jakartans were stunned by their new governor’s methods in handling the floods. He had little success in reducing the impacts of the floods, but people loved the way he approached the victims. He visited them at midnight and actually stayed with them for a while. Jokowi also accompanied disaster-relief workers on the field. His personal presence with the people in facing their hardship and his strong williness to hear their views has won the hearts of many people. Initially, many people thought he was just a great actor, but even those who were very skeptical about him finally acknowledged Jokowi’s sincerity toward people at the grassroots level. “Jokowi, Jokowi,” hundreds of school students cheerfully shouted the Jakarta governor’s name when he accompanied Vice President Boediono during a visit to a senior high school in Jakarta this week. Many of them will be first-time voters in April’s legislative election and in July’s presidential election. Boediono’s presence was reportedly almost unnoticed. Jokowi’s popularity goes far beyond Jakarta and numerous opinion polls conducted throughout 2013 strongly indicated that Jokowi was in pole position to replace President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono this year, regardless of the political party he would represent during the election. Let us revert back to the question on the impact of the floods toward Jokowi’s chances. My impression, the central government, such as the Public Works Ministry and even President Yudhoyono, have distanced themselves from the governor. The central government was very passive as if the President and his Cabinet simply wanted to let Jokowi carry the weight of the burden on his own, although the central government technically had the majority of the responsibility of managing the floods. They were acting as if it was just a matter of time before would turn on Jokowi as a result of his failure. An internal survey by PDI-P reportedly concluded that Jokowi’s popularity had declined this January. It is very natural. But is the public disaappoinment so severe that it has altered their affection for their governor?  Nature is helping Jokowi! Natural and man-made disasters have occured not just in Jakarta, but also across the nation and around globe. Floods killed over 15 people in Manado, North Sulawesi, and we could see that nearly all parts of Java and other islands were affected by the annnual phenomenon. Parts of the US were also hit by a dreadful winter. The impacts of global warming are being felt in many corners of the world. It is impossible to deny that Jokowi did everything in his power to lead the city in overcoming the disaster. Floods have been a serious problem for Jakarta for decades, if not hundreds of years. People clearly appreciate Jokowi’s strong empathy with his people. And all that his opponents have been able to do is criticize him because they know all towell that anybody else in Jokowi’s position would do no better. My conclusion? His potential rivals will use his progress in disaster management as a point of criticism. This will be one his weak points. But will voters care? Yes. But will they change their minds? Some of them will  perhaps question his capacity as a leader. Jokowi’s opponents need to remember that the public’s high opinion of Jokowi will not be seriously affected by the devastating rainy season. Other potential challengers will never be able to convince thepublic that they are better than the governor.  Many Indonesians, if not all, have little trust in the political parties and the legislative candidates. Their perception on legislators both at national and regional levels is very negative. PDI-P has a big chance to win the contest because voters are hoping that Jokowi will represent the party in the presidential race and also because it has consistenly played an important role as an opposition party since 2004. Jokowi is very right to refrain from showing an interest in the presidential bid. Megawati still believes — for totally wrong reasons – that voters still want her to become their leader. The daugher of the country’s first president Sukarno needs to remember that she will face strong resistance from her own members especially from legislative candidates who know they have a much better chance to get their dream seat when the party announces his nomination before the April legislative race. Conclusion? The disaster will probably not significantly change voters’ eagerness to vote for Jokowi. ●