Scrutinizing
presidential hopefuls
Bawono Kumoro, A POLITICAL RESEARCHER AT THE HABIBIE CENTER
Sumber
: JAKARTA POST, 29 Desember 2011
The
National Mandate Party (PAN) held its national working meeting from Dec. 9 to
11. At the end of the meeting, PAN named party chairman Hatta Rajasa as its
presidential candidate for the 2014 election.
Hatta will face challenges from potential candidates including Golkar Party chairman Aburizal “Ical” Bakrie, Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party founder Prabowo Subianto, former finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Constitutional Court chairman Mahfud MD.
Hatta was tipped as a potential candidate for 2014 after the marriage of his eldest daughter, Siti Rubi Aliya Rajasa, to the younger son of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Edhie Baskhoro Yudhoyono. The wedding considerably reinforced the relationship between Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party and PAN.
His position as Coordinating Economic Minister has made Hatta one of the government’s most prominent members. Yet, when compared to other figures, Hatta has been shy in promoting himself as candidate.
Aburizal, Prabowo, Sri Mulyani and Mahfud have been frequently mentioned in conversations about the next president. They enjoy access to, if not the outright possession of, greater financial resources and continue to receive greater media coverage than does Hatta.
However, that is no guarantee of an effortless glide into the presidency.
Aburizal has black notes that are fresh in the public mind on the Lapindo mudflow case and tax mafia allegations. Aburizal, however, has defended his innocence in both cases.
Prabowo’s situation is not that much different. According to a survey conducted by the Indonesian Voter Network (JSI), Prabowo remains an electable candidate, although he has been burdened by human rights abuse allegations when he was an active duty Army officer.
Meanwhile, Sri Mulyani has a legal burden. Then finance minister, Sri Mulyani was a key person behind the decision to bail out Bank Century in 2008.
Although receiving strong support from intellectuals, Sri Mulyani, now a World Bank managing director, needs the support of a political party after the failure of the Union of Independent Peoples’ Party (SRI) — created to back her presidential bid — to pass the verification by the Law and Human Rights Ministry.
Meanwhile, Mahfud’s credibility as a candidate has been untouched. The Supreme Court chief has been scandal-free, so far. However, his chances remain slim unless a political party with strong grassroots support picks him as its candidate.
Don’t forget the Democratic Party, which lacks a potential candidate with the stature of Yudhoyono,
who cannot run for a third term due to term limits as stipulated in the Constitution.
Yudhoyono seems well aware that the absence of an obvious popular candidate coupled with internal political turmoil has put the Democratic Party in the unfortunate position of finding a presidential candidate from within the party.
For the Democratic Party to continue in the future, it must consolidate amid its current internal political turmoil to run smoothly. Efforts to prepare an internal candidate will only hinder efforts to consolidate the party.
Therefore, proposing an external candidate is essential for the party’s consolidation. In such a situation, it is not impossible for Yudhoyono, as chairman of the party’s board of supervisors, to smooth the path for Hatta to move forward as its presidential candidate.
Further, Yudhoyono’s consideration of Hatta may be driven by the need to prepare the next generation of Yudhoyonos to maintain the family’s existence in national politics.
However, positioning Hatta to become the country’s next chief executive is not without challenge. As a Palembang-born Malay from South Sumatra, he faces opposition from some quarters as a person from outside Java. It is hard to avoid the unwritten rule that a president must be Javanese.
In 1999, Indonesia had the experience of a non-Javanese president: B.J. Habibie. Yet, Habibie’s rise to the presidency was due to constitutional considerations. Then vice president, he automatically replaced Soeharto, who resigned as president amid strong demands for reform.
Another challenge for Hatta is a lack of popular support. A survey by JSI showed that Hatta was supported by only 1.6 percent of those surveyed. Such low levels of support are still far from ideal for a person aiming to run for the presidency. ●
Hatta will face challenges from potential candidates including Golkar Party chairman Aburizal “Ical” Bakrie, Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party founder Prabowo Subianto, former finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Constitutional Court chairman Mahfud MD.
Hatta was tipped as a potential candidate for 2014 after the marriage of his eldest daughter, Siti Rubi Aliya Rajasa, to the younger son of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Edhie Baskhoro Yudhoyono. The wedding considerably reinforced the relationship between Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party and PAN.
His position as Coordinating Economic Minister has made Hatta one of the government’s most prominent members. Yet, when compared to other figures, Hatta has been shy in promoting himself as candidate.
Aburizal, Prabowo, Sri Mulyani and Mahfud have been frequently mentioned in conversations about the next president. They enjoy access to, if not the outright possession of, greater financial resources and continue to receive greater media coverage than does Hatta.
However, that is no guarantee of an effortless glide into the presidency.
Aburizal has black notes that are fresh in the public mind on the Lapindo mudflow case and tax mafia allegations. Aburizal, however, has defended his innocence in both cases.
Prabowo’s situation is not that much different. According to a survey conducted by the Indonesian Voter Network (JSI), Prabowo remains an electable candidate, although he has been burdened by human rights abuse allegations when he was an active duty Army officer.
Meanwhile, Sri Mulyani has a legal burden. Then finance minister, Sri Mulyani was a key person behind the decision to bail out Bank Century in 2008.
Although receiving strong support from intellectuals, Sri Mulyani, now a World Bank managing director, needs the support of a political party after the failure of the Union of Independent Peoples’ Party (SRI) — created to back her presidential bid — to pass the verification by the Law and Human Rights Ministry.
Meanwhile, Mahfud’s credibility as a candidate has been untouched. The Supreme Court chief has been scandal-free, so far. However, his chances remain slim unless a political party with strong grassroots support picks him as its candidate.
Don’t forget the Democratic Party, which lacks a potential candidate with the stature of Yudhoyono,
who cannot run for a third term due to term limits as stipulated in the Constitution.
Yudhoyono seems well aware that the absence of an obvious popular candidate coupled with internal political turmoil has put the Democratic Party in the unfortunate position of finding a presidential candidate from within the party.
For the Democratic Party to continue in the future, it must consolidate amid its current internal political turmoil to run smoothly. Efforts to prepare an internal candidate will only hinder efforts to consolidate the party.
Therefore, proposing an external candidate is essential for the party’s consolidation. In such a situation, it is not impossible for Yudhoyono, as chairman of the party’s board of supervisors, to smooth the path for Hatta to move forward as its presidential candidate.
Further, Yudhoyono’s consideration of Hatta may be driven by the need to prepare the next generation of Yudhoyonos to maintain the family’s existence in national politics.
However, positioning Hatta to become the country’s next chief executive is not without challenge. As a Palembang-born Malay from South Sumatra, he faces opposition from some quarters as a person from outside Java. It is hard to avoid the unwritten rule that a president must be Javanese.
In 1999, Indonesia had the experience of a non-Javanese president: B.J. Habibie. Yet, Habibie’s rise to the presidency was due to constitutional considerations. Then vice president, he automatically replaced Soeharto, who resigned as president amid strong demands for reform.
Another challenge for Hatta is a lack of popular support. A survey by JSI showed that Hatta was supported by only 1.6 percent of those surveyed. Such low levels of support are still far from ideal for a person aiming to run for the presidency. ●
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