Jokowi and the fragility of trust Stephen Lock  ;  The writer leads Edelman’s public affairs team across Southeast Asia

JAKARTA POST, 07 Februari 2015

                                                                                                                                     

                                                

The election of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his new government last year appeared to usher in a new chapter for Indonesia, one of optimism about the future, what the country can achieve and what its new political leaders could mean for the country’s future. This optimism was captured in the results of this year’s Edelman Trust Barometer. This is the firm’s 15th annual global trust and credibility survey and the seventh year it has been conducted in Indonesia. The survey looks at trust across business, government, media and NGOs. The research surveyed 1,000 people from the general public in Indonesia, plus an additional 200 “informed public” (top quartile income, college educated and self-identifying as active media consumers); as part of the overall 33,000 people surveyed in 27 countries. Our most striking result shows that trust among Indonesians toward “government in general” increased 16 percent from our 2014 results to 65 percent among the general population (the highest ever) and even more so among informed publics; a 19 percent increase up to 72 percent. But clearly popular sentiment in trust toward President Jokowi has changed radically in recent weeks: this is confirmed by our 15 years of data that shows that trust is fragile; and public trust in government changes radically in the months before, during and following an election. Even the new popular President is not immune from scandal, which could pull the large trust rise in government back down. The recent negative popular outcry Jokowi has endured over his mishandling of the proposed chief of police is just but one example of how high expectations can once again give way to cynicism and distrust (the appointment of the new attorney general was another; giving a sense that Jokowi is “weak” on human rights and justice policy, says the “left”). President Jokowi, with his reputation for clean governance, has now been embroiled in his first major scandal with pointed questions over whether he is succumbing to party pressures and Indonesia’s old political patronage to maintain continued party support. So there may even be the possibility that our Trust survey captured “peak Jokowi”. He presently faces brickbats from the social liberal left — his core supporter base — and he is still yet to achieve an effective modus operandi with the DPR (House of Representatives) in which his coalition currently only controls a minority. It will be telling to see if this is current opinion poll slump will translate into lower levels of trust more broadly over the year ahead. In other findings, our results show that Indonesia continues to be one of the most trusting countries in the world, ranking third globally, with a Trust Index ranking of 67 percent among general public. The Trust Index is an average of a country’s trust in the institutions of government, business, media and NGOs. Trust in business continues to be at an all-time high, even increasing from last year, up 2 percent to 84 percent. This is the joint second highest in the world showing that, for Indonesia, business continues to maintain its license to lead on debate about how to deliver progress and prosperity; playing a central, trusted role in developing Indonesia. This gives a tremendous opportunity for business leaders to drive and comment on public policy. For instance, CEOs are more trusted in Indonesia than the global average, by a 15 percent margin (56 percent in Indonesia are trusted vs. 41 percent globally); and as idea starters, CEO content creators have a 75 percent trust ranking in Indonesia, compared to 46 percent globally. Noteworthy this year, which again looks to be driven by the recent parliamentary and presidential elections, is a decline we see in Indonesians’ trust toward “traditional media” (defined in our survey as mainstream media sources, such as newspapers, magazines, TV and radio news) down 5 percent this year. The recent presidential election was the closest and most polarizing Indonesia has so far seen, with some media groups often obviously favoring candidates with highly partisan coverage, apparently at the behest of their proprietors. The “black campaigns” that came to surface during the presidential election may account for the fall in trust that Indonesians said they have for traditional media. This fall is not calamitous; can be reversed and may be closely tied to the electoral cycle; but it is a sign that reformasi and public trust is not the media’s birthright. With increasing use and considerably higher trust Indonesians say they have in online search over traditional media), equally this year our survey showed that Indonesian’s trust in social media — where of course many journalists are personally very influential — is apparently now close to eclipsing mainstream media. A consistent theme from our results this year show that trust cannot be taken for granted. For the government, if Indonesians fail to see tangible change (or perceive the government once again entangled in the same kind of repeated scandals that embroiled the previous administration), patience and any trust advantage will fade away, fast. Worse still, a failure of Jokowi to deliver may well lead to something more dangerous; a disenchantment with the democratic process itself. There is no greater error than to judge Indonesia through a filter of issues with binary answers but our survey results this year show the power of trust, but also how fleeting it can be. ●