Conflicts
and nuclear threats can trigger war
in East Asia
Kornelius Purba ; Senior Managing Editor at The Jakarta Post
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JAKARTA
POST, 08 Maret 2013
Amid rising military tensions caused by regional
territorial conflicts and the unpredictable nuclear arms development in
North Korea, the East Asia region this year is marked with the emergence of
new leaderships.
China’s Xi
Jinping, who will soon take over the presidency from Hu Jintao, is facing
slower economic growth and a rising number of middle class in China who
want more say in daily political life. And one of the simplest ways to
channel the aspirations and frustration of the people is by targeting the
outside world, especially Japan, its former colonial master.
The new
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been preoccupied with an ambitious
agenda to deliver on his campaign promise to revive the country’s dying
economy. The meaning of rightist or ultra-nationalists is shifting as the
nation is now moving closer to the right amid the stalled economy which has
lasted for decades, while China continues to shine in the international
arena.
Meanwhile,
South Korean President Park Geun-hye was just sworn in last month and one
of her most pressing concerns is how to deal with the North Korean leader
who continues to threaten open war with the South and its military ally,
the United States.
South Korea
also has an overlapping sovereignty claim with Japan, and military forces
of both countries are increasing their presence in the disputed waters
although on a smaller scale compared to Japan’s problem with China. But the
bitterness of Japan’s occupation still lives among millions of South
Koreans and it triggers anti-Japanese sentiment from time to time.
When North
Korea’s Kim Jong-un replaced his father Kim Jong-il last year, there was
hope that as a young man he would be more open to the outside world,
including the opening of its economic door because millions of North Koran
people have been living under extreme poverty and China as its main donor
may soon experience fatigue.
China was also
upset with North Korea’s stubbornness on its nuclear program and Beijing
has taken tougher measures against its ally by endorsing a UN resolution to
condemn and to take tougher economic sanctions against the North.
The possibility
of military conflict and even — limited — wars in East Asia cannot be
completely ruled out because of the overlapping territorial claims and the
confrontational behavior of Kim Jong-un, who apparently thinks war is one
of the most realistic choices to maintain his family’s control over the
country before the people say they can no longer endure the prolonged and
severe poverty and human rights abuses.
A combination
of tension between Japan and China on one side and between Japan and South
Korea on the other, is provoking more hostilities and more rapid military
buildups in the region. But
knowing the
often irrational and unpredictable behavior of North Korean leaders, the
source of open war is more likely to come from Pyongyang.
China and Japan
are facing an escalation of military confrontation over the sovereignty
rights on Diaoyu Island (the name of the island according to the Chinese)
or Senkaku Island, according to Japan’s map. China has insisted that it
would not hesitate to use maximum military means, while many people in
Japan feel they should not allow China to behave as it likes. Domestic
pressure on both sides can trigger direct military confrontation although
both sides realize that they will pay a very high price when they cannot
maintain the conflict at a manageable level.
Following its
successful nuclear tests last month, the North Korean regime has increased
its threats to attack the US and the South. While in the past both the
allies refrained from reacting to such threats because they were perceived
more as propaganda, now they regard them more seriously. The security of
Kim Jong-un is now directly targeted.
“We have all
preparations in place for strong and decisive punishment, not only against
the source of the aggression and its support forces but also the commanding
element,” said Maj. Gen. Kim Yong-hyun of the South Korea Military Army, as
quoted by Reuters on Wednesday.
Indonesia,
as the largest member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN), needs to take the diplomatic initiative — no matter how small it
is compared to other countries’ more powerful influence — to reduce tension
in East Asia, because an open and direct military conflict and escalating
armament in the neighboring area will have military and economic
implications in this region.
The Associated
Press quoted the UN investigator for human rights in North Korea, Marzuki
Darusman from Indonesia, who recommended an investigation of the North’s
“grave, widespread and systematic violations of human rights”.
Indonesia
has had good relations with the North for decades. Citing its own
experience, Indonesia can raise the issues of Marzuki’s report to convince
Kim Jong-un to pay more attention to improve the living conditions of the
people; because in the end, the survival of a regime is not determined by
its brutality but by its ability to bring a better life for the people.
The possibility
of war in the East Asia region cannot be ruled out at all. And when it
happens it is not just the people in the region who will suffer but also
the world, because the region is one of the world’s powerful economic
engines. ●
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