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The charm of Joko Widodo, or Jokowi as he is popularly
known, is everything but fading away. Following his spectacular ascendancy
from Surakarta mayor to the more prestigious title of Jakarta Governor,
Jokowi is now touted as a potential candidate to run for Indonesia’s
presidency.
A recent survey by the Integrated Data Center (PDB), for example, showed
the furniture entrepreneur-turned-politician topped the list of 29
potential presidential candidates after securing 21.2 percent of votes of
respondents surveyed, over shadowing powerhouse names, such as Prabowo
Subianto (Great Indonesia Movement [Gerindra] Party, 17.2 percent),
Megawati Soekarnoputri (the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle or
PDI-P, 11.5 percent) and Aburizal Bakrie (the Golkar Party, 9.7 percent).
Such a surprising result has instantly changed Indonesia’s political
landscape for 2014. Jokowi is considered a powerful alternative figure to
the same old line of politicians aspiring to become president. Despite the
promising outlook for Jokowi, however, it seems better for the former
Surakarta mayor to run for presidency in 2019, not
in 2014.
There are three serious obstacles on Jokowi’s path to presidency if he is
really determined to run for presidency in 2014.
First, Jokowi’s positive image as a public and media darling, considered
his biggest asset in winning Jakarta’s latest gubernatorial election, may
vaporize instantly once he decides to run for presidency. People will
accuse him of being a highly ambitious person and betraying the mandate
that Jakartans have entrusted to him.
It is still fresh in our mind that during his campaign for the
gubernatorial post in Jakarta, Jokowi had been severely criticized for
leaving his mayor post in Surakarta. We can only imagine the similar negative
campaigns that competitors will launch against Jokowi if he leaves his
gubernatorial post halfway to run for presidency.
Second, the year 2014 will become an entirely different political game for
Jokowi since he won’t be able to show his positive performance records
during his leadership in Jakarta.
Assuming Jokowi is really running for presidency in 2014, it means that he
would be at the helm of Jakarta for less than two years — since he has to
resign from his gubernatorial post to run for presidency.
And logically speaking, two years will not be enough time for any governor
to show anything concrete and phenomenal, thus, stripping Jokowi of the
possible good track record asset.
In contrast, Jokowi ran for the 2012 gubernatorial post in Jakarta by
bringing his breakthrough achievements during his nearly two-period
leadership as Surakarta Mayor. Therefore, running for presidency in 2014
for Jokowi would be like going to the battlefield ill-prepared.
Third, in 2014, Jokowi will find it difficult to seek political parties or
a coalition of parties gaining 20 percent of parliamentary seats or 25
percent of national votes required to promote him as a presidential
candidate. The reason being that most of the 10 political parties passing
verification by the General Elections Commission (KPU) seem to already have
their own frontrunners.
For example, Gerindra with Prabowo Subianto, PDI-P — the party with which
Jokowi currently affiliates — with Megawati Soekarnoputri, Golkar with
Aburizal Bakrie, the National Mandate Party (PAN) with the current
Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa, the People’s Conscience Party
(Hanura) with Wiranto, and the Democratic Party reportedly with members of
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s inner circle — First Lady Ani
Yudhoyono and her brother Pramono Edhie Wibowo — are two likely candidates.
Jokowi surely cannot expect the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) to
support him in 2014 since the party has issues with Jokowi for “not being
Islamic enough”. Newcomer National Democrat Party (NasDem) and the National
Awakening Party (PKB) are also unlikely supporters for Jokowi since the
former has shown apparent bent to Jusuf Kalla and the latter to
Constitutional Court Chief Justice Mahfud M.D.
Casting our eyes to the remaining political parties, they won’t become
viable options for Jokowi since they consist of small- to medium-sized
parties that may find it hard to garner 20 percent of national
parliamentary seats or 25 percent of national popular votes required to
usher in Jokowi as presidential candidate.
Therefore, it would be better for Jokowi to patiently run the task of
managing the capital city as Jakartans have trusted him to do. If he does,
Jokowi will likely have more than enough logistics and assets to compete in
the presidential election, say, in 2019. By then, he will possibly be
recognized as a trustworthy leader with good track record.
Besides, political parties will also find themselves in a pursuit for fresh
leaders as the old names will naturally retire from political arena in
2019. So, vote for Jokowi in 2019, not 2014! ●
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