The emergence of
strong leaders in a fragile Asia
Simon Tay ;
Chairman of the Singapore Institute of International
Affairs (SIIA),
The author of Asia Alone (Wiley 2010), which warned of
power imbalances in the region in the wake of the global financial crisis
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JAKARTA
POST, 22 Agustus 2014
Not long ago, Asians suffered weak governments. Japan stumbled
through a series of short-lived and unpopular leaders and, in China, the last
years under President Hu Jintao saw necessary reforms postponed.
In India, after initially high hopes, former prime minister
Manmohan Singh ended his term with more critics than fans. Much the same is
being experienced by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who will
soon leave office.
There were both political and economic costs as faltering
leadership impacted investor confidence. Currency values and growth rates in
both India and Indonesia tumbled last year. The wish was for stronger leaders
who could deliver solutions.
Now this wish seems answered after one plus year of President Xi
Jinping and prime minister M Shinzo Abe in China and Japan, respectively, and
big wins for Narendra Modi in India and president-elect Joko “Jokowi” Widodo
in Indonesia. A lot of good can result.
But there are also dangers. Wish for strong leaders? A witticism
may return to haunt the region: Be careful what you wish for, you may just
get it.
First, however, the good news: The new leaders are keen on
reform. China’s President Xi is undertaking difficult but necessary economic
reform and moving against corruption.
For Japan, the unorthodox policies of Abenomics stimulated
growth that was almost unimaginable. The exact policies of the new leaders in
India and Indonesia remain to be seen. But expectations that they will
initiate reform are high.
All four leaders go beyond economic policy. Each offers a
transformational vision for his country and its place in the world. Each
enjoys strong popular ratings that allow him ample scope to act boldly.
Yet such strong leadership can have costs. Take the growing
tension between China and Japan. While the dispute over the islands
resurfaced before Abe took over, the situation has worsened.
So far, neither Abe nor Xi appears anxious to patch things up.
Indeed, each leader may gain nationalistic support back home by not giving
way.
Abe moreover has taken the excuse to revisit the country’s
pacifist constitution and question whether Japan can extend its security role
in the region — an issue that is controversial even among the Japanese
people.
On its part, China has broadened the dispute by introducing an
Air Defense Identification Zone that overlaps with zones claimed by Japan and
South Korea.
With Southeast Asian neighbors too, Xi’s consolidation of power
in China has not lessened frictions. On the contrary, there has been more
assertive behavior, such as China’s unilateral step to begin drilling for oil
in an area of the South China Sea disputed with Vietnam.
Strong leaders can destabilize a fragile region. The USA, for so
long the inescapable and sometimes only leader in the region, has sought to
adjust to the situation.
President Obama has reaffirmed alliance commitments and
America’s rebalancing to the region, despite challenges elsewhere.
But although an American presence is needed, there are dangers
if the Obama administration over-emphasizes the role of the military in the
region.
Some in Beijing already believe that the Americans might welcome
Abe’s ambition for Japan to serve as a counterweight.
Tokyo’s efforts to support the Philippines and Vietnam are seen
in this light and heighten the tensions. The already existing sense of
US-China competition is in danger of being taken to another level by a direct
and visceral Sino-Japanese rivalry. This complicates things for the new
administrations in India and Indonesia, especially on foreign and security
policies.
With New Delhi, the tradition is to remain non aligned. But Modi
has already received a visit by US State Secretary John Kerry and will next
visit Tokyo. China and India do engage bilaterally and together with Brazil,
Russia and South Africa in BRICS.
But there are some in New Delhi who give more emphasis to
competition with China, whether at sea or over disputed territories in their
shared, high mountain borders.
The new Jokowi administration in Indonesia will take office only
in October and will not have much time before being swept up in regional
meetings.
These include the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
summit to be hosted by China, and the East Asian Summit (EAS), which is
convened by ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations).
Current signs promise continuity with the internationalist
outlook of the out-going administration.
There are however questions of nuance arising from the incoming
President’s lack of foreign policy experience.
Some also question how much Jakarta will assert its own and
separate weight or else continue to be enmeshed within the regional group of
ASEAN.
It would be good if Indonesia can continue to work within ASEAN,
the group of small to medium sized countries, to maintain its central role in
the region’s political and trade arrangements. The EAS, where all the major
power participate, may especially need strengthening.
It would be ideal if India under Modi can deepen ties with ASEAN
as a whole and also perhaps Indonesia on a bilateral basis. The ballast of
these middle countries is needed.
Otherwise, as and when the giants assert themselves, ASEAN will
struggle to remain united and relevant.
Asia used to suffer weak leadership but stability was maintained
for the most.
Stronger Asian leaders are now in place and can deliver domestic
reform and economic growth. But if these same leaders assert their strength
in security and foreign relations against each other or vis-á-vis the US, regional stability can potentially be
unbalanced and even upended. ●
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